[The following excerpt is published courtesy of DLRC Press and its author, Gloria Peters & Cynthia Mohon. This information was originally published in 1995 in The Complete Guide to Shield and Liberty Head Nickels
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Estimating Scarcity
Estimating scarcity in today’s rare coin arena consists of trying to determine the number and grade of each date which currently exist in collectible condition. For mint state and proof coins we have the Population/Census reports of certified coins as well as auction records to help us, but for circulated coins the task is considerably more difficult as most are not valuable enough to warrant the cost of certification or sending to auction.
In evaluating scarcity for the mint state and proof issues we wanted to account for coins which have not yet been sent to the grading services. To help, we compiled 20 years (1972-1993) of auction records. These data were balanced with NGC/PCGS Population Reports, mintage figures, written evaluations available on the two series, consultation with collectors and dealers, availability at coin shows, frequency of appearance in advertising, and our own observations and experience.
The results are shown in tables 3-1 through 3-6. It should be noted a few dates have similar scarcity and were difficult to rank. Sometimes an excessive number of Gems would be the determining factor for dropping the date one or two spots in the overall rankings. Pricing guides were considered but we tried to avoid their influence except to question a price and then investigate for information that may have been missed. In our opinion current prices are more an example of what is collectively thought of as scarce—not necessarily what is scarce.
For mint state and proof coins the criterion was that a coin must be certifiable by either NGC or PCGS, regardless of the grade. In other words, no severe damage or significant cleaning.
Circulated coins have less rigorous requirements. To be included they must simply be collectible for the grade. Cleaned and dull coins may well have less value in the market place, but unless badly corroded or damaged they often find their way into collectors’ sets along with nice, original coins.
The Rarity ratings used in this book are defined as follows.
R-8 Extremely rare, only a few exist.
R-7 Rare, almost never available at shows or auctions.
R-6 Extremely scarce, only a few will appear at auctions or shows in a year.
R-5 Very scarce, may or may not be available at larger shows/auctions.
R-4 Scarce.
R-3 Tough date.
R-2 Better date (for series), available but not at all shows.
R-1 Common, available at most shows.
To estimate scarcity of circulated coins we began with the original mintage* and combined this with their current availability in the market.
More than 60 million uncurrent, unknown dates, 5¢ nickels were melted during the 1866-1912 time period which makes mintage figures unreliable in estimating survival dates of both Shield and Liberty Head nickels. It can be presumed the earlier dates experienced the heaviest melting.
In this chapter and chapter 6, each date in both uncirculated and proof is ranked by its overall rarity in mint state or proof as well as its scarcity, within a given grade. In the Shield series most business strike dates are scarcer than their proof counterparts. The exceptions in proof are the 1866, 1867 W/R; 1867 N/R; 1869; 1870. The 1872, 1876 and 1882 proofs are about equal in rarity to their business strikes (See Date and Mint Mark Analysis — Chapter 6).
The reader will notice the 1913 Liberty Head nickel is not included in the tables. This issue was minted under suspicious circumstances and has never been considered an authorized issue. There were 4 proofs and 1 Business Strike minted. It is therefore the scarcest date in the Liberty Head series. See chapter 7 for further information on this fascinating coin.
*The Mint Director Reports started including the proof mintages along with the business strike mintages in 1878. Therefore all mintages including 1878 must have the number of proofs subtracted from the total number minted to arrive at the correct mint state (business strike) figures. This was done in chapter 6.