Coins We Love: A Market Reflection
Recently, at the June Whitman Baltimore Expo, I was negotiating a deal of freshly certified silver dollars with a friend and fellow dealer when I noticed that several coins in similar grades had flopped in a recent major auction. In casual conversation, regarding the price, I mentioned those low comps as we negotiated and was immediately met with the response, “Was it the May 2024 auction?”
Sure enough, it was. Most of the low comps I was seeing were sold in May of 2024. This certainly isn’t the first time that this has happened in today’s world — flooding auctions with duplicate coins and pieces that have quality issues — but it’s always worth noting, so I filed that away in my brain for future use and completed the deal. In the following weeks, I continued purchasing coins from dealers and collectors, when it struck me that I was seeing even more coins that sold for surprisingly low numbers from… you guessed it, May 2024.
This week, DLRC was pleased to attend the annual Summer FUN show in Orlando. As a primary buyer for David Lawrence, I have tons of coins offered to me and frequently rely on multiple pricing value references. And right from the start of the show, I began seeing low comps from May (and June this time!) 2024 again. And MANY of these coins that were of lower quality were showing up in dealer inventories shortly after the sales. I saw auction records for many (it was clear they bought the coins in auction as the serial numbers were the same) but they were marked up 50-100% as wholesale values. To my surprise, my lower price evaluations weren’t cutting it, so our buying was a little decreased for the event overall. So, after I got home from the show this weekend, I sat down to take a closer look. This is what I found:
In May and June 2024, several auctions occurred, totaling approximately 9,000-10,000 coins. It goes without saying… that’s a lot.
Out of curiosity, I looked back over the previous nine months and found only one instance boasting somewhat comparable numbers to those, and it occurred in early 2024. January is historically a fantastic time for the coin market. Dealers and auction houses look to start the year off with a bang, spending more and selling more, setting the tone for the year — often saving their very best for the auctions taking place at this time.
Conversely, early May auctions often suffer from the recent tax-time ramifications of April, and it also marks the beginning of what coin dealers call The Summer Slowdown: a time when market activity decelerates as dealers and collectors alike take the summer months for traveling, vacationing, and visiting family while the kids and grandkids are out of school.
All these things I've considered; I am still of the mindset that the numbers matter. Selling thousands of coins indiscriminately over a few weeks following a major show and just before The Summer Slowdown does not seem like the ideal situation. It is my opinion that the marketplace was flooded with too many coins at once, the quality and eye appeal were not the focus and imaging was shoddy, causing poor results on many items. Don’t get me wrong, some coins jumped through the roof in value. The ones that aren’t easily duplicated, the really nice coins, and the pieces that stood out from the rest.
So where do we go from here? Well, I for one am convinced that what happened in the months of May and June are not a sign of a downward trend, but rather the perfect storm of bad timing, poor planning, and a lack of focus on the collector. As a buyer for DLRC and as a collector, I would advise the coin community to take the May and June sales with a grain of salt. Use it, but do not rely on it. And frankly, don’t read too much into it. The rare coin market is healthy and active. Why would I say that? The fact that buying at the Summer FUN show was incredibly limited, the nice coins are not on the market, and we’re still seeing record activity across the board. Collectors still can’t find the coins they are looking for. We will also note that some coins have continued to stay on the wholesale market for a long time. They likely will continue…but these are the coins that we expect the poor results from. And it’s why the focus on quality and eye appeal are so important…and why it’s important to work with someone who can help you to navigate the turbulent waters of numismatics!
Price guides can only look at the numbers generated, as they aren’t on the forefront of actually trading within the market. But that’s where we come in and why we bring these events to the attention of collectors. It’s a free added value and it’s important for us in processing our thoughts and feelings on the current market. So, where does this leave us? Focus on quality and eye appeal. We’ll keep doing that on your behalf, but we hope that these insights help and that we can continue to be your Partners in Collecting!
Numismatically Yours,
John Call and Your Friends at DLRC
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