Coins We Love: Market Update

So How is the Coin Market?

The most common question we hear from collectors (or from dinner party guests, it seems!) is “how’s the coin market?” It’s kind of funny, because I wish there was a succinct answer that we could give everyone, but there’s so much nuance in a proper response that it often gets shortened to, “It’s going well…” or, “It’s fine…” So, I’ll try to do part of it in writing today and see where that leaves us.

One of the newest levels that has really come into its own in the last year is called Whatnot. Now, if you haven’t been on Whatnot and you’re a serious collector, I’d probably suggest you save your sanity and don’t worry about it. If you like buying raw coins that will likely never straight grade or random bags of wheat cents for double what they are worth (along with a few miscellaneous oddball items), it’s a great place to spend some time. Honestly, I find myself checking it out late at night on occasion just to see what’s going on — it can certainly be entertaining! But let’s suffice to say that it’s 1/4 gamification of the hobby, 1/4 uneducated buyers/sellers, 1/4 actual coins and, I guess, 1/4 entertainment. Now, what does this have to do with the actual coin market? Interestingly, it has caused some market increases in value in one of our favorite sectors of the coin market that we have long thought is undervalued, the cheaper collector coins (let’s say collector coins up to $1,000) to increase in price. These have long been in demand by us, but the rest of the collecting world is finally finding these affordable “gems”. 

Middle of the market ($500-$5,000): As long as the coins are attractive, priced fairly, and are quality for the grade, these coins are doing just fine. We sell more coins in this price range than all of the others, and we definitely see strength here. Unfortunately, with the price of gold skyrocketing the past few months, the premiums on gold coins in these ranges have dropped dramatically, but that’s simply due to the supply and demand right now. I think that, properly hedged, numismatic gold is the best value right now because the slightly better dates are no longer considered “better” and the better dates are at the cheapest premiums I’ve ever seen.

Higher-end market ($5k-$99k): This part of the market is very much like the middle market. Everything depends on quality, eye appeal, and fairness. And if the coin is exceedingly rare or difficult to find, there are competing collectors on many series. If the coins are ugly, over-graded, or over-priced, these coins get old and stale. But there’s far more strength in this level overall than most folks may know. Unfortunately, coin collecting is still a private endeavor by most collectors as it’s not something that everyone feels safe broadcasting to their friends, but it’s still a hobby that crosses more borders financially than you might expect.

I don’t like guesstimating on the 6-figure coins because it’s a different stratosphere than the average collector level, and it often depends on quality, rarity, and “who” is chasing a certain series. I’ve seen some really good values in this level in auctions, but I’ve also seen some coins go through the roof. Often, it depends on the exposition and how well presented the “story” of the coin is, but let’s just say it is like a collection in that it varies from collector to collector, series to series, and coin to coin.

What parts of the hobby are aggressive? Collectors are still highly demanding PCGS/CAC-stickered coins, CACG coins are highly desired as their quality is certainly far above average, and collector coins in NGC holders are doing okay as well. Eye appeal is certainly king, and quality matters. Prices do too, but it comes in a distant third place in the race for popularity.

What matters most currently? Educated Collectors. Those who know what they want and are spending the most time researching their wants/needs are able to find better deals amongst an aggressive market. Those who aren’t willing to do the work may struggle right now, as prices and quality really do matter, and those who are in it for the quick flip or not for the longer term hold may find themselves tripping on their investment. The more collectors know, the better their purchases and often they enjoy the hobby more…but this might be something good for the new CWL, so I’ll stop there!

As for now, enjoy this week’s CWL!

Numismatically Yours in Baltimore (for now!),
John Brush and Your Friends @ DLRC

Click here to continue reading!